According to delegates and OPEC data Argus has seen, the OPEC+ group continued to significantly fall short of its overall oil production goal in August, with the difference between the quota and actual output reaching a staggering 3.58 million barrels per day (bpd). In July, OPEC+ already fell 2.9 million bpd short of its goal.

The non-OPEC producers in the agreement were more than 2 million bpd behind the quota, at 2.185 million bpd, while the 10 OPEC countries bound by the agreement saw their combined crude oil production approach 1.399 million bpd below the quota.

According to the data, Russia from the non-OPEC group and Nigeria from OPEC were the countries that lagged behind the most in production quotas in August. Nigeria was 700,000 bpd behind its allotment, while Russia’s oil output was 1.25 million bpd below its objective. The sanctions imposed by the West in response to Russia’s war with Ukraine have limited production in Russia, while Nigeria has struggled for years due to a lack of investment and oil theft.

According to a report released earlier this month by oil export analytics company Petro-Logistics, crude oil shipments from Nigeria dropped to below 1 million bpd in August, the country’s lowest level ever. The Nigerian oil sector has recently been plagued by persistent underinvestment and the ongoing issue of oil theft from pipelines. Oil majors are not making investments in Nigerian supplies, and a large number of foreign companies have either divested their holdings in Nigeria’s oil sector or indicated that they plan to do so.

After the group resolved to speed up the reversal of the cuts and have them unwound by the end of August, it was widely anticipated that OPEC+ would continue to underperform by a significant amount relative to its production objectives for July and August.

Because the group increased its monthly collective target by 100,000 bpd, the underperformance in September will be significantly worse. At a meeting earlier this month, OPEC+ resolved that this rise will be reversed in October.