According to Reuters, crude oil shipments from Iran have surpassed 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time since 2019. China, unsurprisingly, is the largest buyer of oil.

If the current round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US ends in a settlement, a rise in oil exports could be on the cards. This is the final stage of discussions, which will either result in an agreement or a “nuclear crisis,” according to US government sources.

Nothing is guaranteed, but the potential of a settlement is already putting downward pressure on pricing. With high fuel costs causing concern in the White House, the US may be even more motivated to achieve an agreement with Iran. If a deal is achieved, Iran’s oil exports might return to the pre-sanctions level of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd).

“The U.S. government is attempting to tame oil prices by urgently negotiating a new nuclear agreement with Iran,” Rystad Energy senior oil market analyst Louise Dickson told Reuters earlier this week. If a deal is struck, Iran could ramp up “crude and condensate production within four to six months, or even quicker as Iran is thought to have robust oil-on-water storage.”