According to the BP Energy Outlook 2023, global oil demand is expected to peak between the late 2020s and early 2030s as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is accelerating investment in clean energy and governments are looking to bolster energy security with higher shares of renewables in the energy mix, BP said on Monday.

The New Momentum scenario, one of three presented by BP in the outlook reflecting “the current broad trajectory” of energy systems, projects that by the end of this decade, the world’s oil demand will be roughly equal to its current level of 100 million barrels per day and that it will decline to 93 million by the year 2035.

Oil demand is expected to reach 91 million bpd in 2030 and 80 million bpd in 2035 under the Acceleratedscenario, whereas it will fall to 85 million bpd in 2030 and even lower by 2035 under the Net Zero scenario.

According to BP, “Global oil demand plateaus over the next 10 years or so before declining over the rest of the outlook, driven in part by the falling use of oil in road transport as vehicles become more efficient and are increasingly fuelled by alternative energy sources.”

BP’s assessment shows the prospects for natural gas rely on how quickly the energy transition is implemented. The picture is less definite after 2030, although LNG commerce is expected to increase in the near term.

According to Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP, the scenarios in Outlook 2023 have been revised to account for both the war and the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States.

Dale said: “Most importantly, the desire of countries to bolster their energy security by reducing their dependency on imported energy – dominated by fossil fuels – and instead have access to more domestically produced energy – much of which is likely to come from renewables and other non-fossil energy sources – suggests that the war is likely to accelerate the pace of the energy transition.”