If the G7 is successful in capping the price of Russian crude oil, the chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB Group predicts that oil prices will surge past $200 per barrel. Given the strain the oil market is currently experiencing, SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop declared on Wednesday that the G7’s price capping proposal was a “recipe for disaster.”

The G7 leaders decided on Tuesday to research possible methods of capping the price of Russian oil exported worldwide. They are now looking for backing from other “like-minded” countries. It was one of the crucial topics to be discussed at this week’s G7 summit as the group attempts to come up with innovative ways to cut energy prices for themselves and retain enough supply of Russian crude oil while simultaneously penalising Russia, a task that many perceive to be impossible.

Given the high demand for crude oil and the scarcity of supply, which have so far given Russia the upper hand in the market, Schieldrop claims that while the strategy is “neat on paper,” it currently sounds like a formula for disaster. The analyst suggested that Russia might decide not to sell the oil at a cap price, which might cause a reduction in output of up to 2 million barrels per day in Russia.

According to sources cited by Kommersant, Russia’s production of petroleum and condensate increased by 5% in June to 10.7 million bpd. This figure includes between 800,000 and 900,000 bpd of condensate, which is not covered by the OPEC+ agreement. Russian oil exports, meanwhile, fell by 3.3% in June due to an increase in domestic refining demand.