Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, anticipates global crude demand to rise by half a million barrels per day this winter as a gas-driven energy shortage prompts a rush for alternative fuels.

Rusell Hardy, the CEO of Vitol, said in an interview from London on Thursday that oil is most certainly headed beyond $80 a barrel, partially due to increasing gas prices, which could push OPEC+ producers to add more supply to the market.

He said: “Can demand surprise us to the upside because of power switching? Yes.”

“Is it likely that there’s half a million barrels a day of extra demand that comes through because of gas pricing? Probably our view is, that is likely across winter.”

“All people are worried about is that we’re missing pieces of stock which we normally have.”

He predicted that European gas reserves will be about 78% of normal levels in October, indicating a tightening market in the colder months when demand increases. Gas reserves are running low, coinciding with high worldwide demand, as countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and China want to adopt cleaner fuels for their pipelines and power plants.

According to Mr Hardy, this means gas will stay expensive, forcing purchasers to seek alternate fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas or naphtha for power generation or industrial use.

By the middle of next year, he anticipates demand to return to 2019 levels, with peak demand coming closer to 2030.

“During the winter, demand for gas is massively higher than demand for gas during the summer. You have to store, there’s no two ways around it.”

The OPEC+ coalition, he claims, is “micro-managing” the oil market and will utilise its anticipated output rise to keep prices in check.

“It is finally balanced for the next six months.”

“We’re not worried about demand in the long run, we know it’s going to come back steadily.”