According to the Energy Information Administration’s latest short-term energy outlook, Brent crude oil prices will average $107 per barrel in the second quarter of this year.
According to the STEO, the EIA forecasts prices falling to $103 per barrel in the second half of the year before falling to an average of $97 per barrel next year, more than double the average price for 2020.
The EIA forecasts a full-year price of $98.20 for WTI crude in 2022, falling to $93.24 in 2023. This year, US crude oil production will average 11.9 million barrels per day, up barely 700,000 from last year. However, the EIA expects a substantially larger increase next year, with an average of 12.8 million bpd in 2023, a new high.
The EIA estimates that worldwide petroleum and liquid fuel consumption will reach 97.4 million barrels per day in April 2022, up 2.1 million bpd from April 2018. The full-year 2022 consumption forecast is 99.6 million bpd, down 200,000 bpd from the April STEO.
However, the EIA noted that these forecasts were generated on May 5, before any EU restriction on Russian oil imports, which, according to the EIA, would drive prices even higher.