Russia will be able to restore oil output to 90% of what it was before the virus, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who spoke to Russian television on Wednesday. He credited Russia’s ability to increase oil production to an OPEC+ agreement taken earlier on Wednesday, in which the cartel agreed to loosen production cuts by a further 400,000 barrels per day.

“For Russia it means that in March it will be able to additionally increase by 100,000 barrels per day again. It will enable us to restore the level of reduced volume by 90%,” Novak said.

In May 2020, Russia shut down 2 million barrels per day as part of measures to restore balance to the oil markets, which were flooded with inventory and prices had fallen into negative territory. According to Novak, 1.8 million barrels per day will be restored as early as March, and Russia’s compliance has been close to 100% since December.

According to the March output schedule, Russia will be able to produce an average of 10.331 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s share.

The market is sceptical of OPEC+’s future production capabilities and the veracity of spare capacity numbers due to the group’s non-compliance with the production cut accord. This compliance stood at 122% in December, raising the question of whether OPEC+ can genuinely rise to fulfil demand if called upon in such a tight market.