According to the International Energy Agency, if the EU embargo on crude oil imports by sea goes into effect next month, Russia’s oil production might decrease by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023.
In its Oil Market Report on Tuesday, the IEA warned that by the end of October, the EU had cut its imports of Russian crude oil to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd). However, once the embargo goes into effect, Moscow may find it difficult to sell those barrels to its current top customers, China, India, and Turkey, as no significant demand outside of those nations has emerged despite significant discounts.
Although the EU has been able to reduce some of its imports of Russian crude and goods, the IEA stated that when the EU embargoes take into effect, more than 2 million bpd of crude oil and product imports will need to be replaced.
The EU was still importing 1.4 million bpd of Russian crude oil in October, despite having already decreased its imports by 1.1 million bpd. The EU had reduced imports of fuel by 50,000 bpd to 560,000 bpd.
In addition to oil stockpile levels in major economies being at their lowest since 2004, the embargoes will put pressure on market balances, according to the agency.
The IEA said: “A further rerouting of trade should help ease pressures but a shortage of tankers is a major concern, especially for ice-class vessels required to load out of Baltic ports during winter.”
“When the crude and product embargoes come into full force in December and February, respectively, an additional 1.1 mb/d of crude and 1 mb/d of diesel, naphtha and fuel oil will have to be replaced. For crude oil, no significant buying from Russia outside China, India, and Türkiye has appeared despite massive discounts.”
“A proposed oil price cap may help alleviate tensions, yet a myriad of uncertainties and logistical challenges remain.”