According to tweets from Amena Bakr, Chief OPEC Correspondent at Energy Intelligence, the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is suggesting an increase in output of 648,000 barrels per day, which is higher than what was previously agreed.
The anticipated output increase of 648,000 bpd is for July, followed by another 648,000 bpd rise in August. OPEC+ would move the September boost forward and spread it out across July and August, resulting in a total increase of 648,000 bpd in each of those months.
Multiple reports say that all members of the JMMC agreed.
Until Thursday, the consensus was that OPEC’s JMMC would rubber-stamp the 423,000-bpd output rise that had already been baked into the deal. However, conflicting reports began to emerge, and those reports morphed into rumours that OPEC might agree to increase production to compensate for what would almost certainly be lost Russian oil production as a result of Western sanctions, including the EU’s Russian oil import ban, which was agreed to earlier this week.
According to Amena Bakr, the proposed rise of 648,000 bpd was discussed as an overall increase for the OPEC+ organization, to be evenly distributed among its members. In truth, several OPEC+ countries are unable to satisfy their present quotas and are unlikely to be able to reach a new, even higher quota.
Below is the new quote table:
| JULY 2022 REQUIRED PRODUCTION | |
| OPEC MEMBERS | |
| Algeria | 1039 |
| Angola | 1502 |
| Congo | 320 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 125 |
| Gabon | 183 |
| Iraq | 4580 |
| Kuwait | 2768 |
| Nigeria | 1799 |
| Saudi Arabia | 10833 |
| UAE | 3127 |
| NON-OPEC MEMBERS | |
| Azerbaijan | 706 |
| Bahrain | 202 |
| Brunei | 100 |
| Kazakhstan | 1680 |
| Malaysia | 585 |
| Mexico | 1753 |
| Oman | 868 |
| Russia | 10833 |
| Sudan | 74 |
| South Sudan | 128 |
| TOTAL | |
| OPEC | 26276 |
| Non-OPEC | 16930 |
| OPEC+ | 43206 |
If the OPEC+ ministers agree to this proposal, it will be a relief to the White House, which has been imploring OPEC for more oil supply as the US battles high gasoline prices in the run-up to the mid-term elections.
The US has already released a statement welcoming the “important decision from OPEC+” to increase supply by over 200,000 barrels per day in July and August. “We recognize the role of Saudi Arabia as the chair of OPEC+ and its largest producer in achieving this consensus amongst the group members. We also recognize the efforts and positive contributions of UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq,” said the statement.
On Thursday morning, oil prices were falling due to the expectation of more oil from the group.
