According to a report seen by Reuters, OPEC+ is lowering its estimates for an oil market surplus this year. The report, which was created prior to the OPEC+ JTC meeting on Tuesday, revealed that the OPEC+ group now expects the oil market surplus to be 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, down from their earlier projections of 1.4 million bpd.
OPEC+ is committed to raising its output by 432,000 bpd in May, but the cartel fell short of this goal by 2.7 million bpd. Although the OPEC+ group once more agreed to increase their output by an additional 432,000 bpd in June, it is widely believed in the industry that they will not be able to achieve that quota as well.
OPEC+ will be increasing their output targets for July and August by an even greater margin, essentially carrying over the planned increase for September into July and August. However, if the OPEC+ is using these production numbers as their estimates, then the continued underproduction will reduce any anticipated market surplus.
Nigeria, which saw its production decline in May, has been one of the OPEC laggards in the production cut arrangement. Nigeria will significantly contribute to the market surplus that the OPEC+ group observes if it is able to meet its production quota by the end of August, when the quotas have been fully rolled down.
As the OPEC+ group continues to produce below its quota, forecasts for the crude oil surplus are being reduced.