Brent Crude prices are expected to average $80 per barrel in 2022, according to Barclays, which increased its projection by $3, citing slower supply growth next year and faster inventory decrease by the end of this year.
Barclays also raised its forecast for average WTI Crude prices in 2022 by $3 to $77 per barrel in a note published by Reuters on Tuesday, citing its belief that OPEC+ will not rush to restore all output as planned if the market becomes oversupplied early next year.
Almost all analysts and watchers, including OPEC+, have been warning for months against adding more output than planned, as they all seem to agree that there would be an oversupply at the start of 2022.
The surplus could arrive as early as the first quarter of 2022, according to Barclays, compared to a previous forecast of Q2 2022. However, inventory drawdowns this year are likely to drain commercial stockpiles more quickly than previously forecast, resulting in a lower starting point for inventory builds.
The UK bank says OPEC+ could reduce or possibly halt monthly additions of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the predicted excess if the current COVID recovery has a substantial impact on global oil demand.
The planned, synchronised release of SPR from the US and big Asian customers, such as India and Japan, will have no substantial impact on oil prices. “We think Strategic Petroleum Reserves are not a sustainable source of supply and the effect of such market intervention would only be temporary,” Barclays’s analysts wrote in the note.