In its Monthly Oil Market Report released on Thursday, 11th March 2021, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects that oil demand will rise in the second half of the year, due to economic recovery.
The Organisation expects oil demand to rise by 5.9 million barrels per day and total consumption to hit about 96.3 million bpd in 2021.
It however stated that the forecast remains surrounded by uncertainties including but not limited to COVID-19 variants, the effectiveness of vaccines, sovereign debt levels in many regions, inflationary pressures, and central bank responses.
For World Oil Demand, the report stated: “For 2021, world oil demand is expected at 5.9 mb/d, to stand at 96.3 mb/d. Oil requirements in 1H21 are adjusted lower, mainly due to extended measures to control COVID-19 in many key parts of Europe. In addition, elevated unemployment rates in the US slowed the recovery process. In contrast, oil demand in 2H21 is adjusted higher, reflecting expectations for a stronger economic recovery with the positive impact of vaccination rollouts. In regional terms, OECD oil demand is expected to increase by 2.6 mb/d in 2021 to stand at 44.6 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is seen rising by 3.3 mb/d to average 51.6 mb/d.”
For World Oil Supply, the report stated: “Non-OPEC liquids production is estimated to average 62.9 mb/d in 2020, a contraction of 2.6 mb/d, y-o-y. NonOPEC oil supply in 2020 declined in Canada, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, the UK and Azerbaijan, but increased in Norway, Brazil, China, and Guyana. Non-OPEC liquids supply for 2021 is forecast to grow by almost 1 mb/d to average 63.8 mb/d. The US liquids supply forecast remains unchanged, with growth of 0.16 mb/d in 2021, although uncertainties persist. The main contributors to supply growth are expected to be Canada, the US, Norway, Brazil and Russia.”
%20projects%20that%20oil%20demand%20will%20rise%20in%20the%20second%20half%20of%20the%20year,%20due%20to%20economic%20recovery.The%20Organisation%20expects%20oil%20demand%20to%20rise%20by%205.9%20million%20barrels%20per%20day%20and%20total%20consumption%20to%20hit%20about%2096.3%20million%20bpd%20in%202021.It%20however%20stated%20that%20the%20forecast%20remains%20surrounded%20by%20uncertainties%20including%20but%20not%20limited%20to%20COVID-19%20variants,%20the%20effectiveness%20of%20vaccines,%20sovereign%20debt%20levels%20in%20many%20regions,%20inflationary%20pressures,%20and%20central%20bank%20responses.For%20World%20Oil%20Demand,%20the%20report%20stated:%20em“For%202021,%20world%20oil%20demand%20is%20expected%20at%205.9%20mb/d,%20to%20stand%20at%2096.3%20mb/d.%20Oil%20requirements%20in%201H21%20are%20adjusted%20lower,%20mainly%20due%20to%20extended%20measures%20to%20control%20COVID-19%20in%20many%20key%20parts%20of%20Europe.%20In%20addition,%20elevated%20unemployment%20rates%20in%20the%20US%20slowed%20the%20recovery%20process.%20In%20contrast,%20oil%20demand%20in%202H21%20is%20adjusted%20higher,%20reflecting%20expectations%20for%20a%20stronger%20economic%20recovery%20with%20the%20positive%20impact%20of%20vaccination%20rollouts.%20In%20regional%20terms,%20OECD%20oil%20demand%20is%20expected%20to%20increase%20by%202.6%20mb/d%20in%202021%20to%20stand%20at%2044.6%20mb/d,%20while%20non-OECD%20demand%20is%20seen%20rising%20by%203.3%20mb/d%20to%20average%2051.6%20mb/d.”/emFor%20World%20Oil%20Supply,%20the%20report%20stated:%20em“Non-OPEC%20liquids%20production%20is%20estimated%20to%20average%2062.9%20mb/d%20in%202020,%20a%20contraction%20of%202.6%20mb/d,%20y-o-y.%20NonOPEC%20oil%20supply%20in%202020%20declined%20in%20Canada,%20Colombia,%20Kazakhstan,%20Malaysia,%20the%20UK%20and%20Azerbaijan,%20but%20increased%20in%20Norway,%20Brazil,%20China,%20and%20Guyana.%20Non-OPEC%20liquids%20supply%20for%202021%20is%20forecast%20to%20grow%20by%20almost%201%20mb/d%20to%20average%2063.8%20mb/d.%20The%20US%20liquids%20supply%20forecast%20remains%20unchanged,%20with%20growth%20of%200.16%20mb/d%20in%202021,%20although%20uncertainties%20persist.%20The%20main%20contributors%20to%20supply%20growth%20are%20expected%20to%20be%20Canada,%20the%20US,%20Norway,%20Brazil%20and%20Russia.”a%20href=https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/FULL%20OPEC%20MONTHLY%20OIL%20MARKET%20REPORT%20HERE/a/em){kind=link}