According to Bloomberg, Russia, the leader of the non-OPEC producers in the OPEC+ alliance, may not deliver all of the 100,000 bpd monthly increases required by the deal this year, adding to the positive outlook for oil market tightening and prices in the first half of 2022.

Russia, like Saudi Arabia, is allowed to boost its oil output by roughly 100,000 bpd each month under the OPEC+ agreement, which allows for a total OPEC+ monthly production growth of 400,000 bpd.

Russia may be able to increase its output by 60,000 bpd per month in the first half of 2022, according to Bloomberg polled analysts, slightly over half of the monthly production increases it is entitled to.

“We have a hard time seeing Russian suppliers maintaining 100,000 barrels-a-day production increases each month for the next six months,” Karen Kostanyan and Ekaterina Smyk, analysts at Bank of America, told Bloomberg.

Russia’s total oil and condensate output in December was 10.903 million bpd, unchanged from November, indicating that it had used all of its available production capacity.

In its stated output numbers, Russia does not distinguish between crude oil and condensate production. After years of dispute inside the OPEC+ group, Russia has been granted an exception from the production limit deal for its condensate output.

According to the production table issued by OPEC following the previous OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, its target for February is 100,000 bpd higher—at 10.227 million bpd.